Prop firm pass rate calculator
Type how you trade and see your odds of passing every prop firm's challenge, with each firm's current rules. No statement or account needed.
1How you trade
2Which challenges
Your odds at each firm
You risk $250 a trade on a 50K account. The average trade makes +0.25R, about $125 on an average day.
Loading every firm's rules…
How the odds are worked out
- Days from your numbers: each trading day has your number of trades. Each trade wins at your win rate; a win pays reward:risk times your risk, a loss costs the risk. Risk is a share of the account, so 0.5% is $250 on $50K and $500 on $100K.
- Every firm's own rules: the days run through each challenge's first evaluation phase with its profit target, max loss and how it trails, daily loss limit, consistency rule and minimum trading days, the same engine as the account check.
- 200 runs, up to 60 days each: a run passes on the first day every condition is met, fails on the first broken limit, and counts as not finished if neither happened in 60 trading days.
- Same numbers, same odds: the random draws are seeded by your inputs, so a shared link shows the same result.
Have real trades? Which prop firm would you have passed replays your own days, or a statement, on every firm, and reshuffles them for your odds. Rules come from each firm's official pages and are checked for changes every day.
Questions
How does the pass rate calculator work?
It makes up trading days from your numbers: each trade wins at your win rate, a win pays your reward:risk times what you risk, and a loss costs the risk. Those days run through each firm's first evaluation phase with its current profit target, max loss, daily loss limit, consistency rule and minimum days, 200 times per challenge for up to 60 trading days. The share of runs that reached the target before breaking a limit is your pass rate at that challenge.
What win rate do I need to pass a prop firm challenge?
It depends on your reward:risk. Trades break even at a win rate of 1 ÷ (1 + reward:risk): 50% at 1:1, 40% at 1:1.5 and 33% at 1:2. Below that the average trade loses money and almost every run breaks a limit. Above it, the margin over break-even, your risk per trade and the room between the target and the max loss decide how often you pass.
How much should I risk per trade?
Risking more reaches the target in fewer days but breaks the max loss and the daily limit more often. Change the risk field and watch both the pass and the fail share: at many firms the odds peak somewhere in the middle and fall again as the risk grows.
Why are my odds different at each firm?
The same trades meet different rules. A target that is large compared with the max loss, a trailing drawdown that follows your best balance, a tight daily loss limit, a consistency rule that caps your best day or a minimum number of trading days all lower the odds. The calculator shows each firm's best challenge for your numbers, and the others under "more challenges".
Are these the firms' published pass rates?
No. Firms report how many of all their traders passed. These are the odds for a trader with your numbers on each firm's rules, which is a different question: a firm with a low published pass rate can still give good odds to a trader with a real edge.
What doesn't the simulation cover?
Real trading is less regular than the model: losing streaks cluster, position sizes drift and some days you skip. Limits are checked on each day's closing result, so a day that dips through the daily limit and then recovers counts as safe here. Only the first phase is judged. To test your real days instead, import a statement in the "which prop firm would you have passed" check.